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Overview of cereals availability in sub-Saharan Africa

03 October 2014

In July 2014 FAO reported in its Crop Prospects and Food Situation that prospects for global cereals production had further improved, to a projected 2,498 million tonnes (including milled rice), less than 1% below the record output recorded in 2013. This was attributed to improved production in the USA and the EU. Improved production prospects saw an easing of wheat and maize prices. Wheat prices fell below the level in the corresponding period in 2013, while maize prices were a third below 2013 levels.

Global cereals consumption is expected to grow by 2.1% (50 million tonnes) to 2,462 million tonnes in 2014/15. Cereals use in food consumption is estimated to increase by 1.3% (or 15 million tonnes), while feed use is projected to increase by 2% (+17 million tonnes).

Stock levels are projected to increase by 5% (+28 million) to 604 million tonnes in 2014/15, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 24.3%, a 12-year high. Wheat and maize stocks are projected to increase by 10% and 3.5% respectively.

FAO estimated in the report that 26 African countries are “in need of external assistance for food due to conflict, crop failures and high domestic food prices” or a combination of these factors. Two ACP African countries are considered to be facing an “exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies”; 11 are facing a “widespread lack of access” to food; and 13 countries are reported to be facing severe localised food insecurity. Conflicts or insecurity, an influx of refugees, a sustained undermining of household production capacities, high prices and slow processes of post-conflict reconstruction are all contributing factors to localised, widespread or exceptional food shortfalls.

Food availability in sub-Saharan Africa

Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies:
Central African Republic (conflict related); Zimbabwe (sustained undermining production base, but with recovery under way)
Widespread lack of access:
Burkina Faso (refugee related); Chad (refugee related); Djibouti (poor rains); Eritrea (economic constraints); Guinea (high prices); Liberia (slow post-conflict recovery and refugees); Malawi (localised production losses); Mali (insecurity aggravating precarious household food security); Mauritania (refugees and high prices); Niger (sustained depletion of household assets following food crises and high indebtedness); Sierra Leone (lingering effects of high prices).
Severe localised food insecurity:
Cameroon (sustained poor weather); Rep. of Congo (economic constraints and refugees); Côte d’Ivoire (post-conflict recovery); DRC (economic constraints and refugees); Ethiopia (economic constraints); Lesotho (economic constraints); Madagascar (localised poor weather and pest losses); Mozambique (localised weather-related damage); Senegal (production shortfall); Somalia (conflict related); South Sudan (conflict related); Sudan (conflict related); Uganda (sustained localised weather-related losses).

Source: Extracted from FAO, July 2014 (see below).

The scope for intra-regional trade in addressing food shortages is highlighted by trade in East Africa. Tanzania experienced a good harvest (some 5.3 million tonnes), generating a significant surplus, and discussions were launched on the possible sale of 208,000 tonnes of maize to Kenya from the Tanzanian National Food Reserve. In July 2014, agreement was reached to supply some 50,000 tonnes of maize to Kenya from Tanzania’s strategic reserve, which then stood at 244,830 tonnes. An agreement to supply 24,000 tonnes of maize through the World Food Programme to countries experiencing food shortages was also agreed. (For more details see Agritrade article ‘ Debate intensifies on Kenyan maize imports’, 4 October 2014.) 

Editorial comment

Even in good years of global food production, food insecurity remains challenging in many African ACP countries. In getting to grips with this food insecurity, trade policies potentially have a role to play in addressing both high prices and localised food shortfalls. They can also play a role in supporting the rebuilding of production capacities in post-conflict situations, and even in creating market opportunities to halt the sustained undermining of local production capacities.

The challenge for ACP governments is effectively to design and implement policy tools that address the underlying problem while reconciling the interests of producers and consumers. This is by no means a straightforward task, as the policy debate in Zimbabwe illustrates.

In 2014, it is forecast that Zimbabwean maize production will increase 70% from 1 million to 1.7 million tonnes. This has led to calls for restrictions on imports of maize meal to allow local maize markets to be cleared. However, any restriction on maize meal imports would be likely to increase problems of household-level access to maize meal, since it is likely to drive up maize meal prices.

There are examples of institutional and regulatory frameworks in neighbouring countries (e.g. Namibia) which routinely manage this challenge through the trade policy measures deployed, by regulating imports until local maize markets have been cleared. Developments in Zimbabwean policy threaten to disrupt the development of regional maize supply chains, undermining the potential benefits of the 17% increase in maize production forecast in the Southern African region in 2014, resulting from “public support to improve input supplies” and “favourable climatic conditions”, while the transparently managed regulation of the maize trade in Namibia minimises trade disruptions and price rises. There would thus appear to be scope for sharing policy experiences across ACP countries. 

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