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Production projections

06 August 2009

USDA analysis reports that Brazil’s biennial downturn in arabica coffee production will contribute to a 7.3 million bag reduction in global coffee production compared to last year’s 134.8 million bags. Brazil and Vietnam together account for 49% of global coffee production (43.5 million and 18.4 million bags respectively). ‘Green coffee bean exports are forecast to total 91.7 million bags in 2009/10, down 2.3 million from the previous year’. Coffee bean imports are forecast at 86.4 million bags, down 1.4 million from the previous year. EU green bean coffee imports are projected to fall 800,000 bags to a total of 44.4 million. In terms of prices, the International Coffee Organisation’s composite price was up 16% between March and May 2009. This was primarily a result of a 50% price surge for Colombian mild. Previously, since March 2008, ‘prices had been trending down ... as hedge and index funds reduced their exposure’.

According to the USDA analysis, in 2008/09 ACP countries collectively accounted for 12.05% of green bean coffee production, 12.29% of arabica coffee production and 13.72% of robusta coffee production; these shares were down from 13.35%, up from 12.12% and down from 15.76% in 2004/05 for green bean, arabica and robusta coffee production respectively.

ACP coffee production (in thousands of 60 kg bags)

  2004/05 2008/09
Green bean coffee 16,372 16,235
as % of world production 13.35 12.05
Arabica coffee 9,530 9,201
as % of world production 12.12 12.29
Robusta coffee 6,927 7,012
as % of world production 15.76 13.72

Editorial comment

ACP countries are seeing their global market shares in the coffee sector decline. In some ACP countries this is leading to a greater focus on ‘quality’ production and ‘quality’ labelling, in order to ensure that premium prices are obtained. Expanding support to ACP countries for moving production in this direction and realising the commercial benefits of such a move can be seen as an important ‘aid for trade’ priority in the coming period.

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