Continued growth in EU poultry meat exports targeting some African markets
02 March 2014
According to the EC’s ‘Prospects for agricultural markets and incomes in the EU 2013-2023’, the EU poultry sector has benefited from reduced consumption of beef and pork, arising from the economic situation. However, “higher feed costs and the economic environment had a significant impact,” slowing down consumption growth over the period 2011–13. In the future, while EU poultry production is expected to continue to expand, it will be held back by relatively high feed costs. Production in 2023 is nevertheless projected to be 11.5% higher than in 2010.
The EC report notes that EU exports of poultry meat grew a massive 24% in 2010 and a further 12% in 2011. Export growth then weakened, but continued at 2% in 2012 and 1% in 2013, consolidating the earlier export gains. Strong growth in demand for EU poultry exports in South Africa and Benin were highlighted. Looking to the future, the report notes that “exports are expected to grow by 120,000 tonnes as compared to 2012, with greater demand also from South Africa and Ghana.” In contrast, “projected production increases in Russia will lead to a contraction in import demand” for EU poultry meat.
The analysis notes that “lower export refunds in October 2012 and their complete removal in January 2013 for chicks and in July for frozen poultry carcasses seem not to have had a noticeable effect on exports.”
In 2012, EU imports of poultry meat “remained rather stable at around the same level as in the previous year, but increased by 3.4% in 2013 in response to firm growth in domestic consumption” and the opening of tariff-rate quotas for imports from Thailand.
EU poultry prices “are expected to recover steadily from a drop in 2014, and exceed the 2012 high by the end of the projection period”. However, price volatility is likely to characterise the sector, given the importance of feed in overall costs and the volatility in global and EU cereals markets.
EU poultry sector 2010–2023: Projections for production, consumption, imports, exports and relative prices
Net production (tonnes) | Consumption (tonnes) | Per capita consump-tion (kg) | Imports (tonnes) | Exports (tonnes) | EU price €/t | World price €/t | |
2010 | 12,202,000 | 11,840,000 | 20.64 | 797,000 | 1,159,000 | 1,724 | 844 |
2011 | 12,408,000 | 11,942,000 | 20.76 | 832,000 | 1,298,000 | 1,908 | 1,108 |
2012 | 12,660,000 | 12,181,000 | 21.12 | 845,000 | 1,324,000 | 1,958 | 1,101 |
2013 | 12,756,000 | 12,262,000 | 21.21 | 845,000 | 1,338,000 | 1,997 | 1,046 |
2014 | 12,854,000 | 12,373,000 | 21.35 | 841,000 | 1,322,000 | 1,842 | 958 |
2015 | 12,899,000 | 12,406,000 | 21.36 | 842,000 | 1,335,000 | 1,867 | 974 |
2016 | 13,001,000 | 12,507,000 | 21.48 | 844,000 | 1,338,000 | 1,877 | 980 |
2017 | 13,087,000 | 12,592,000 | 21.58 | 844,000 | 1,339,000 | 1,912 | 1,001 |
2018 | 13,200,000 | 12,700,000 | 21.72 | 847,000 | 1,347,000 | 1,967 | 1,030 |
2019 | 13,285,000 | 12,778,000 | 21.81 | 849,000 | 1,356,000 | 2,000 | 1,047 |
2020 | 13,353,000 | 12,835,000 | 21.87 | 850,000 | 1,368,000 | 2,021 | 1,059 |
2021 | 13,482,000 | 12,895,000 | 21.94 | 852,000 | 1,385,000 | 2,040 | 1,068 |
2022 | 13,519,000 | 12,970,000 | 22.03 | 854,000 | 1,403,000 | 2,055 | 1,076 |
2023 | 13,602,000 | 13,013,000 | 22.08 | 855,000 | 1,445,000 | 2,077 | 1,089 |
Source: EC, ‘Prospects for agricultural markets’, extracted from Table 6.21.
Editorial comment
The trade policy pursued by ACP governments can play an important role in the main markets served by EU poultry exports, particular in Africa. The commitments entered into on poultry trade by the South African government under the EU–South Africa Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA) mean that, to date, EU exporters have not been affected by tariff increases or the application of safeguard measures. The application of safeguard provisions by South Africa is seen as unfounded and discriminatory by US poultry exporters, who have pressed Congress to link future renewal of the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) to the dismantling of such import restrictions. Given the preferential access that the TDCA extends to EU poultry suppliers and the impact that this has on trade, US agro-food exporters may well press for reciprocity to be introduced into any future AGOA renewal.
Similarly, in West Africa, the restrictive poultry import policies applied by Nigeria mean that Benin is a major target market, not for itself but as a transit route into the much larger Nigerian market. The illicit trade gives rise to potentially serious health hazards to Nigerian consumers of imported poultry meat products. In contrast to the situation in Nigeria, the government of Ghana has refrained from introducing any trade restrictions, with the EC consequently seeing good prospects for the export of increased levels of poultry meat to Ghana.
These African markets are likely to become increasingly important as the EU loses important export markets closer to home as those countries’ domestic poultry meat production expands (e.g. Russia). Given the price differential between EU and world market prices, the structure of the EU poultry trade into Africa requires careful analysis.