After suffering disruption from severe winter weather and volcanic eruptions, Kenya’s horticultural exports are now suffering the consequences of the Greek financial crisis as the euro falls by 12.75% against the Kenyan shilling. This is placing a profitability squeeze on Kenyan horticultural exporters, as costs rise for transport, fertilisers, chemicals and insurance, all denominated in US dollars.

According to press reports, Kenya sells 82% of its horticultural exports to Europe. The industry has already suffered from a loss of export earnings as a result of the economic downturn. In efforts to mitigate these developments, Kenyan exporters are seeking to diversify their markets.

Press reports indicate that ‘EU imports of fruit and vegetables from third countries in 2009 were reduced in volume by 7% and 8% respectively in value over the previous year. This reversed the general trends towards rising imports, which has seen a cumulative growth in fruit and vegetable imports of 39% between 2002 and 2008. Fruit imports ‘fell 8% in volume, reaching 11.1 million tonnes, and 9% in value, totalling €8,844 million.’ There were also falls in export volumes for banana (-8%), pineapple (-5%), orange (-18%), apple (-14%) and grape (-6%).

Imports of vegetables fell 2%, with the main vegetable imports being tomatoes, potatoes, onions, peppers and green beans. Tomato imports however actually increased by 11% in 2009, reaching 524,120 tonnes.

Meanwhile reports indicate that fruit and vegetables represent the largest category in the EU’s €20 billion market for organic products, with organic production now accounting for 5% of fresh fruit and vegetable sales in the EU. Imports play a critical role in ensuring regular supplies of organic products. While demand for organic products is projected to double in the coming years, the supply side for organic products is becoming increasingly competitive as mergers, acquisitions and rationalisation take place.

Press reports indicate that ‘EU imports of fruit and vegetables from third countries in 2009 were reduced in volume by 7% and 8% respectively in value over the previous year. This reversed the general trends towards rising imports, which has seen a cumulative growth in fruit and vegetable imports of 39% between 2002 and 2008. Fruit imports ‘fell 8% in volume, reaching 11.1 million tonnes, and 9% in value, totalling €8,844 million.’ There were also falls in export volumes for banana (-8%), pineapple (-5%), orange (-18%), apple (-14%) and grape (-6%).

Imports of vegetables fell 2%, with the main vegetable imports being tomatoes, potatoes, onions, peppers and green beans. Tomato imports however actually increased by 11% in 2009, reaching 524,120 tonnes.

Meanwhile reports indicate that fruit and vegetables represent the largest category in the EU’s €20 billion market for organic products, with organic production now accounting for 5% of fresh fruit and vegetable sales in the EU. Imports play a critical role in ensuring regular supplies of organic products. While demand for organic products is projected to double in the coming years, the supply side for organic products is becoming increasingly competitive as mergers, acquisitions and rationalisation take place.

On 1 April 2010, COPA-COGECA called on the EC to ‘urgently improve crisis management and prevention measures in the EU fruit and vegetable sector’, warning that the sector was in crisis following a 12.7% decline in the value of EU fruit production in 2009 and a consequent 12% reduction in producer incomes. Specifically the EC was urged ‘to increase the volume of production eligible for withdrawal as well as the amounts of community compensation for withdrawals’. It is argued that without such action, ‘more producers will go out of business’.

COPA-COGECA’s warnings for the short term need to be seen against the background of longer-term trends. Hein Duprez, Chairman of the Univeg Group, is currently warning of a ‘worldwide shortage in fruit and vegetables’ as the impact of climate change takes effect, with a consequent rise in prices. This has led Univeg to buy agricultural land in developing countries, notably Latin America, to secure its own long-term supplies. This is creating not only ‘own’ production but also contract farming arrangements as small growers cluster around the core unit.

Press reports indicate that world fruit and vegetable production and trade has increased steadily in the past few years, with more than 10% of global production of fresh fruit and between 3% and 4% of fresh vegetables being traded across national borders. The EU is the world’s largest importing region for fresh fruit and is second in the international trade in fresh vegetables, after the United States.

Meanwhile, press reports indicate that Spanish fruit and vegetable imports decreased in November 2009 by 20% compared to the same month in 2008. The greatest decline was in vegetables (-41% in volume and -39% in value), while imports of fruit grew 10% in volume and 5.5% in value. From January to November 2009, Spanish imports fell 8% in volume terms and 14% in value. According to FEPEX, the Spanish federation of fresh producers’ and exporters’ associations, this reflects a ‘tightening of market conditions’. Spanish producers have been calling for an action plan to address the crisis in the fruit and vegetable sector.

A feasibility study on ‘the setting-up of a European platform for data and information exchange for the European fruit and vegetable market’ has been posted by the EC. The aim of the platform for data and information exchange is to help the EU fruit-and-vegetable industry to:

• ‘reach a higher degree of effectiveness in managing the available resources and preventing market crises through the sharing of information among the associations of European producers to the widest possible extent;
• ‘establish a more balanced competitive position for producers, given their weakness within the fruit and vegetable supply chain with respect to wholesalers, processors and distributors’.

It is argued that improved information management can help avert ‘structural market crises’ by establishing ‘long-term trends of the domestic supply, the import, and the demand in the domestic and foreign markets’. It is also maintained that efficient data analysis can allow actions to be taken to reduce the economic cost of periodic over-supply situations. Critically, it is stressed that the design of any ‘platform for data and information exchange’ would need to minimise the dangers of collusion on pricing or the partitioning of markets.

Cold weather in Europe is adversely affecting Kenyan exports of both horticultural and floricultural products, with the bad weather disrupting both air freight and road transport delivery. This comes in a context where the winter season ‘is usually the [Kenyan] industry’s peak season accounting for 65% of all the fruits and vegetables exported to Europe’. Similar difficulties are reported for cut-flower exports, with weather conditions having ‘seriously reduced the number of “occasional buyers” who are demanding flowers for activities such as weddings, funerals and other outdoor decorations’.

The Fruit and Vegetable Producers’ Association in Morocco, meanwhile, is reported to be ready to supply export produce to replace Spain’s fall in production of citrus and other fruits that will result from the cold weather. Spain’s production is expected to drop by 6% to 7% for clementines, and by 15% for oranges, and Morocco is counting on a rise in exports to Europe in the first quarter of 2010 to 300,000 tonnes of fruit and vegetables, representing 50% of its usual annual exports to the European markets. The Moroccan minister for agriculture has reported that the country is expecting production for the current season to reach 1.41m tonnes, 10% up on last season. Total exports are expected to be 7% up on the previous year.

Press reports indicate growing levels of Malian exports of mangoes to Europe. This follows on from the implementation of targeted programmes of assistance aimed at ‘boosting the mango chain – building exporters’ capacity, improving quality of the mango fruits exported and increasing quantity of exports’. Since 2007, total exports of mangoes from Mali have increased from 4,000 tonnes to 10,000 tonnes. The minister for agriculture, Sidi Diaby, is attributing the increase to the national strategy contained in Mali’s Programme for Competitiveness and Agricultural Diversification: mangoes are ‘at the heart of a strategy to boost commercial agriculture through the improvement of the supply chains for mango, shea, gum arabic, banana, shallot and potatoes’.

Ghanaian tomato farmers, meanwhile, are reported to be dismayed at the bumper crop, with surplus production severely depressing prices. Farmers are now facing huge debts, after contracting loans to expand production and with the increased volumes resulting in a price collapse. Farmers are now letting tomatoes rot in the field, since it is no longer profitable to transport their product to market.

EU fruit-and-vegetable producers have sent a open letter to the EC and European Parliament calling for action to address the ‘unprecedented economic crisis’ confronting the sector, with ‘prices appreciably lower than their production costs’. It calls for similar support to be extended to EU fruit-and-vegetable producers to that extended to dairy producers. It cites as justification for such a policy initiative: the current low level of public aid; the impact which bilateral trade agreements are having on the market; the abolition of export support despite the high value of the euro; the concentration of market power in the hands of large retailers; and the cost-increasing effects of SPS standards, which it claims are commonly violated by third-country suppliers.

According to FEPEX, the Spanish federation of fresh producers’ and exporters’ associations, ‘the high volume of cheap imports facilitated by non-payment of customs duties has led to the collapse of EU markets, strongly aggravating the crisis in which the whole Spanish sector is immersed. FEPEX has reiterated calls for proper enforcement of the terms of the EU-Morocco Association Agreement. Once again Spanish tomato producers have complained about Moroccan exporters exceeding the quota set out in the Association Agreement with the EU (24,000 tonnes, compared to a quota of 10,000 tonnes in the period in question), with import prices below the agreed minimum entry price. Spanish producers take the view that the applicable specific duties are not being paid due to problems of enforcement at the points of entry.

The situation is leading to vocal opposition from Spanish farmers to the recent EU-Moroccan trade deal which will see either a lifting of duties and quotas or a major expansion of tariff rate quotas for Moroccan fruit-and-vegetable exports to the EU (a 39% increase in the tomato quota to 257,000 tonnes, a doubling of the courgette quota to 50,000 tonnes and an expansion of the clementine orange quota from 130,000 to 175,000 tonnes). The chair of the Andalusian fruit-and-vegetable federation has described the deal as the worst possible deal, coinciding as it does with ‘the crisis in the Spanish agricultural sector’. Spanish farmers have called for increased support to ‘reorganise and modernise Spanish exports to deal with the Moroccan competition’.

The debate on the role of the international food trade in climate change has intensified, with statements from the Archbishop of Canterbury calling on consumers to ‘eat local’. This has prompted a response highlighting the energy intensity of ‘local’ greenhouse-based vegetable production and the carbon effects of internal fruit-and-vegetable transportation. It is argued that the international trade in fruit and vegetables would ‘make hardly any impact on climate change but would harm over one million people in sub-Saharan Africa’. According to opinion pieces carried on the Guardian website, ‘air-freighted fruit and vegetables contribute less than one-tenth of 1% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions’, with far greater emissions occurring as a result of ‘domestic transport of food goods within the United Kingdom’.

Meanwhile in South Africa a major multiple retailer is working with farmers to ensure that its fresh produce is produced in increasingly environmentally friendly ways. The ‘Farming for the future’ scheme, which ‘focuses on building and maintaining healthy soil’, is set to be rolled out from the end of 2009, with the aim of ensuring that all locally grown fresh produce meets the farming practices laid down under the scheme by 2012.

The debate on the role of the international food trade in climate change has intensified, with statements from the Archbishop of Canterbury calling on consumers to ‘eat local’. This has prompted a response highlighting the energy intensity of ‘local’ greenhouse-based vegetable production and the carbon effects of internal fruit-and-vegetable transportation. It is argued that the international trade in fruit and vegetables would ‘make hardly any impact on climate change but would harm over one million people in sub-Saharan Africa’. According to opinion pieces carried on the Guardian website, ‘air-freighted fruit and vegetables contribute less than one-tenth of 1% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions’, with far greater emissions occurring as a result of ‘domestic transport of food goods within the United Kingdom’.

Meanwhile in South Africa a major multiple retailer is working with farmers to ensure that its fresh produce is produced in increasingly environmentally friendly ways. The ‘Farming for the future’ scheme, which ‘focuses on building and maintaining healthy soil’, is set to be rolled out from the end of 2009, with the aim of ensuring that all locally grown fresh produce meets the farming practices laid down under the scheme by 2012.

Press reports indicate that the EU fruit-and-vegetable sector is under enormous financial pressure, with falling prices and returns on production. This is a result of the global economic downturn and the entry onto the market of large volumes of certain key products. European apple suppliers ‘are expecting one of their worst starts to a season in recent memory’, while ‘Dutch berry producers reportedly stopped harvesting because of low market prices’. In Germany, wholesale fruit prices are reported ‘to be around 14% lower than at the same time last year’, while in Belgium fruit auction houses are reporting turnover down 25%-30% compared to 2008. In France, fruit prices are reported to have fallen by nearly 20% compared to 2008, while in some parts of the Spanish citrus sector a crisis is emerging, with Spanish fresh produce association Asaja Murcia forecasting that ‘45% of growers could abandon their orchards in the coming years’ as a result of poor recent harvests.

As a result of this market situation, there are growing demands for government support with promotion measures and actions against imports, and some large retailers are responding with ‘locally grown’ campaigns.

Press reports indicate that a Namibian programme to promote production of certain agricultural products for the local market has been extremely successful. Local production now meets ‘30% of the local demand for fresh produce’. A study in 2008 undertaken by PricewaterhouseCooper’s under the auspices of the Namibian Agronomic Board ‘found that maximum possible local production would reach 60% of local demand’.

Meanwhile a €2 million programme has been launched in Tanzania to promote the commercialisation of subsistence fruit farming for export. The aim of the programme is to establish the infrastructure to assist smallholders meet strict export requirements. More than 600 farmers in the Coastal Region, Zanzibar and Tabora are expected to benefit from the programme. Since the mid-1990s, horticulture and floriculture have been the top non-traditional exports in Tanzania.

A Eurobarometer survey has reported strong support among consumers (72%) for mandatory labelling of a product’s carbon footprint, although the level of support varies across individual EU member states. EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas argued that consumers have an important role in combating climate change, as ‘by purchasing environmentally friendly and climate-friendly products, individual consumers send the right signal to farmers to produce more eco-friendly products’.

African producers meanwhile argue that the ‘food miles’ concept is fundamentally flawed, since African products are ‘grown naturally under the sun’ and are thus ‘less damaging to the environment’ than greenhouse-raised products. According to press reports, research conducted by European institutions found that ‘producing vegetables in a greenhouse produces nearly 20 times more carbon than those produced under the sun in Africa and South America, and airlifted to Europe’.

A tele-conference of northern and southern hemisphere citrus industry leaders has highlighted that reduced demand is resulting in a build-up of stocks and a decrease in prices in the citrus sector. This has been exacerbated by abundant supplies of summer fruit in Europe. According to Justin Chadwick, the CEO of the South African Citrus Growers Association, ‘buyers are reducing risk by reducing stock holdings and buying only when they can move the product. Buyers are also putting pressure on suppliers in terms of price. … prices for many commodities have dropped by 20-25% from last year’s levels’.

South African fruit exporters are also facing demands for smaller shipments and extended credit periods, with payment problems creating cash-flow difficulties. This comes on top of the outbreak of a highly infectious disease amongst bees, which is threatening pollination in the fruit sector.

Despite these difficulties, press reports indicate that Mozambique has started exporting citrus fruit to Europe (some 1,400 tonnes in the 2008/09 season).

A research paper by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has been posted, examining the impact of EU preferential agreements on carnation exports from Colombia and Kenya to the UK. The analysis uses the Rotterdam differentiated-product model. It found that ‘Colombia benefited from preferential access to the UK more than Kenya: the benefit to Colombia was due to both trade creation and diversion, whereas the benefit to Kenya was mostly due to trade diversion’. The results of the modelling exercise showed that ‘the competition between Colombian and Kenyan carnations was insignificant, and there was no evidence that the preferences given to Colombia harmed Kenya or vice versa.’ This needs to be seen in a context where the two countries account for 70% of carnations imported into the UK. Beyond these general conclusions, the report notes that ‘it is likely that carnation exports from Colombia and Kenya have been enhanced by tariff-free access to European markets’.

The report traces trends in Colombian and Kenyan carnation exports to the UK market, highlighting the relative stability of Colombian exports and the volatility of Kenyan exports. The report acknowledges the growing role that supermarkets are playing in the cut-flower trade, with supermarket prices for consumers being as much as two-thirds cheaper than flowers sourced through traditional auction houses. The implications of this trend however are not explored.

The report concludes that ‘preferential access for these developing countries is for the most part trade-creating in the UK carnation market’, with both Colombia and Kenya being ‘made better off by their preferential agreements’. It further finds that ‘exporters in one country should not be concerned with the access given to a competing developing country’ in the case of the UK carnation market.

Press reports indicate that ‘current world economic recession has forced prices of horticultural products to fall by 30% on the international market’, creating serious difficulties in a number of ACP countries which have developed horticultural exports. In Tanzania, press reports suggest that some 20,000 horticultural workers could face redundancy in the face of a drop in demand for flowers and green vegetables from Tanzania. The costs of SPS compliance and compliance verification have been highlighted as an important cost element in some countries in the context of the price declines.

Meanwhile in Europe, FEPEX, the Spanish federation of fresh producers’ and exporters’ associations, continues to criticise the EC authorities for ‘failing to enforce import taxes for Moroccan products’. This, it is held, has contributed to a 12% decline in Spanish vegetable exports to other EU member states. FEPEX has appealed to ‘Spain’s ministry of agriculture to improve the competitiveness of the country’s fresh product industry’.

Botswana horticulture producers have complained that trader dominance of the supply chain is holding back the development of local horticultural production. This comes against the background of low-quality, low-priced imports from South Africa, which in a context of high input costs is squeezing local producers. Botswana Horticultural Council chairperson Ms Boshoma Mpulubusi ‘called upon government to intervene and protect local producers against unscrupulous traders’.

Spanish tomato producers are demanding EU action against imports of tomatoes from Morocco which are ‘causing a crisis in tomato prices’. According to FAPEX, the Spanish association of producer/exporter associations this is a result of weak import controls. ‘Morocco receives a preferential import entry price for its shipments to Europe, which is fixed at €0.46 per kilo’ compared to €0.85/ kg from all other non-EU sources. However Moroccan exporters are ‘neither respecting the import price that it (is) required to pay nor its agreed export limits’. FEPEX claimed that ‘Moroccan exporters shipped more than 55,000 tonnes of tomatoes to Europe during January 2009 … compared to the 31,000 tonnes allowed under the agreement with the EU’.

The EC has found that more than €330 million of state aid granted to French fruit-and-vegetable farmers from 1992 and 2002 was in contravention of EU rules on state aid. The aid, which was used to pay producer organisations to support market prices and income, was held to be ‘incompatible with the common market’. It is suggested some of this aid financed subsidised sales of fruit and vegetables outside the EU during times of crisis. While the French government has been instructed to recover the funds paid out, it is expected to appeal against the EC decision.

The Soil Association is to terminate its support for a campaign to label imported horticulture and floriculture products with an aeroplane sticker designed to highlight the carbon footprint of imported products. According to press reports, the campaign had been encouraging people to buy goods which had travelled a minimal distance to market. The Kenyan Flower Council has welcomed the move. This follows an investigation which showed that carbon emissions per capita in Kenya are only 2% of what they are in the UK, and that travelling 6.5 miles to a local supermarket to do your shopping left the equivalent carbon footprint of ‘flying a pack of Kenyan green beans to the UK’.