According to the December 2003 USDA semi-annual review of the EU grain and feed market, EU cereals production was severely affected by drought and hot weather across southern Europe , reducing E-15 grain production from 210 million tonnes to 184.8 million tonnes. This has created a shortage of feed grain in Europe , which has boosted prices and reduced exports. In addition poor harvests in central and eastern Europe and the Black Sea area have reduced import availability. In response the EU has suspended export refunds on cereals, released grain from stocks and reduced set-aside for next year from 10% to 5%. A continued tight market situation is expected until the summer of 2004.
EU-15 wheat output fell from 103.7 million tonnes to 92 million tonnes while coarse grain production fell from 105 million tonnes to 93.5 million tonnes. EU-15 grain stocks are expected to fall from 33 million tonnes to 19 million tonnes. Additional imports may be need in January and February 2004.
High EU wheat prices are making EU flour exports uncompetitive on African markets, with Belgian flour exported to central Africa now costing US$310 per tonne compared to US$230 per tonne for flour from Argentina .