According to Namibia’s Minister of Trade and Industry, speaking in an interview with Bloomberg News in February 2014, the Namibian government does not feel in a position to “renew a trade deal with the European Union by the time an existing agreement expires in October, because the 28-nation bloc is inflexible over food and agricultural imports”. Mr Carl Schlettwein maintained that provisions in the draft agreement eroded the Namibian government’s “policy space to industrialize and to pursue free trade arrangements”.

The Minister stated that “Namibia wants safeguards in the food and agriculture industries to ensure that local producers don’t have to compete with ‘heavily subsidized’ goods from Europe”. He noted that “Namibian exports of beef, fish and grapes would lose duty-free access to the EU if the trade deal isn’t renewed by October.”

The current debate regarding South Africa’s anti-dumping tariffs on EU poultry imports further complicates the issue of the likely impact of unresolved EPA provisions on Namibia’s development prospects (see Agritrade article ‘ South African guidelines on use of agricultural safeguard provisions und...’, 5 August 2013). While increased MFN duties were introduced for poultry imports into South Africa in September 2013 (24% for poultry in pieces and 82% for whole birds), these did not apply to imports from the EU under the EU–South Africa Trade, Development and Cooperation Agreement (TDCA).

This has resulted in the Netherlands overtaking Brazil “as the largest poultry exporter by value to South Africa”. Brazilian exports in November 2013 were 46% below export levels in November 2012, while imports from the UK and the Netherlands doubled, and those from Germany increased by 50%.

These developments have reportedly placed severe price pressures on local poultry producers, with local poultry industry representatives complaining that “with the current pricing, broiler production in Namibia and also South Africa is not economically viable.” It is against this background that the South African Poultry Association (SAPA), with support from poultry associations in neighbouring countries, has applied for anti-dumping duties on EU poultry exports to the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) area.

SAPA is seeking anti-dumping duties of “91 per cent on imports from Germany and the Netherlands, and a similar duty of 58% on British imports”. The anti-dumping investigation by South Africa’s International Trade Advisory Committee (ITAC) is now approaching its final stage. The managing director of Namib Mills argues that that if the ITAC rules in favour of the SAPA application, “the prices of overseas imports…will increase, allowing local prices to reach more sustainable levels.” In contrast, representatives of the Association of Meat Importers and Exporters (AMIE) maintain that insufficient evidence of injury has been presented to justify the application of anti-dumping duties and that the poorest 10% of South African households would suffer from any poultry price increases.